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Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)
Howdy, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I can be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.
As ever, you probably have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $39,449
Market Cap: $771.620bn
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value is ready to shut the week at contemporary yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on related quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into help turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for increased costs, to be trustworthy – momentum nonetheless appears to be like robust and we’ve simply closed by means of multi-week resistance. Taking a look at subsequent week, I might anticipate this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there may be more likely to be rather more resistance given the confluence. If we do see value push up into that stage, I can be seeking to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge once we settle for above that stage. For draw back danger, any wick up above $39.6k in direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to appear to be an area high to me, from which level we will begin in search of shorts probably again so far as $33k to filter all of those latest untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that high formation within the subsequent week or two under $42k. Invalidation on any quick publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we appear to be a high has shaped I might not rush to fade the primary weekly shut by means of multi-week consolidation.
Turning to the every day, we will see how momentum had reset and is now curling increased once more as value has damaged by means of resistance at $38k and turned it into help on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, for my part. If we will maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I might anticipate value to only preserve pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that will appear to be the $42k stage is getting front-run and I might turn into much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction appears to be like like this…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)
Market Cap: $260.285bn
Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD, on the weekly we will see that value rallied off resistance turned help at $2037 – a stage which value had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, value discovered help at that stage and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This appears to be like very very like the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance stage for ETH, notably once we take into account how $2037 additionally acted as very robust resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with value solely deviating above that when since Could 2022’s capitulation occasion. This robust push off that stage and break of contemporary yearly highs signifies a brand new vary enlargement, for my part, as I’ve been awaiting. If we will flip $2170 into help subsequent week I feel we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a contemporary yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that will look a little bit extra bearish and we may take into account {that a} deviation has shaped. However till that occurs, this appears to be like prepared for a brand new vary.
Taking a look at ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and under the 200wMA at 0.0557, however value is ready to shut proper round that resistance stage as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there may be little to do, however once we see value both shut by means of 0.0533 and switch that help into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into help, then we will take a look at the best way to play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former state of affairs, naturally we might look to hedge lengthy publicity or open quick publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in direction of multi-year trendline resistance, subsequently outperforming for a interval. Easy.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.953bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we will see from the weekly that value is discovering help above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally under the place the pair is ready to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but displaying any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to anticipate increased costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into help above $64, I feel we see one other leg increased into that vary between $75-82. If, nevertheless, we at any level shut the weekly under $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I might anticipate $48 to be retested under because the final stage of help earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into potential in direction of $36. Dropping into the every day, we will see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we will begin pushing by means of $64 I might anticipate momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish state of affairs right here subsequent week can be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and an in depth again under $61; in that state of affairs, I might search for intraweek shorts in direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance by means of that stage, with $48 then the last word goal for that quick. Under $48, what occurs…
Turning to SOL/BTC, we will see how value is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We’ve resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place value is presently sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% stage at 0.00208, the place there may be additionally prior help, for my part. So probably 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance provides method. If we’re topping out right here, nevertheless, subsequent week ought to see value shut again under 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested stage at 0.00112. If we drop into the every day, we will see how every day construction is popping bullish once more after the transient pullback however there may be resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I feel so long as the pair continues to kind these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re more likely to see it give method and switch into reclaimed help; from there, I feel we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there can be rather more resistance.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.547bn
Ideas: If we start by MATIC/USD, we will see from the weekly that value has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located help this previous week, rallying off that stage into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly stunning value didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls desires to see right here is that the pair kind a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed help at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that stage weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we kind that higher-low in that space. From there, we might anticipate one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior help, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the every day, we will see how value is definitely forming some respectable construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed help at $0.74, with every day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push increased. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other increased low kinds, I don’t suppose we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, value rallied by means of the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again under that stage and retracing now into reclaimed help at 2000 satoshis; a serious historic stage. If we will kind a higher-low on this space, construction appears to be like completely wonderful for continuation increased within the coming weeks. Nevertheless, shut again under 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi help coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I feel the following leg takes the pair in direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the every day, we will see how value faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing help maintain right here. If we will now reclaim 2100 as help, I might anticipate to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the following leg increased into 2950-3230.
Oasis Community:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $428.513mn
Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we will see that value continued to rally increased this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with value set to shut the week marginally under that stage. We’re wanting on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that stage, there may be zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get stuffed in swiftly, notably following a multi-week consolidation under resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that prime subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again under it, the image appears to be like a little bit completely different. For now, this very a lot appears to be like prepared for continuation increased, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.
Turning to ROSE/BTC, we will see that value is now above reclaimed help at 203, with solely prior help at 219 satoshis appearing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we will shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I might anticipate ROSE to push in direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance by means of that stage opening up the primary main resistance stage at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the every day, we will see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, value has flipped vary resistance at 203 into help and is now holding that stage; shut again inside that and we’re more likely to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I feel we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there may be rather more resistance.
Amp:
AMP/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
AMP/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $141.301mn
Ideas: If we start by AMP/USD, we will see that the pair not too long ago shaped an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above help at $0.0018, now consolidating under prior help turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, notably when momentum indicators, weekly construction continues to be bearish and the pair continues to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the interim. If we now see a higher-low kind above $0.0018 and value then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic stage – then we will start thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to observe. If that does happen, I might anticipate the pair to rally off that $0.003 stage as help quickly in direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nevertheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and contemporary all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the every day, we will see that value is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as help, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 can even give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot increased chance, for my part.
Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having utterly diminished and value now consolidating in a good vary round all-time lows. If this can be a undertaking you’re feeling assured in essentially (this can be a reader request, and subsequently I can not touch upon fundamentals right here), this could be precisely the place I might be seeking to construct a spot place to be trustworthy, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Trying on the every day, we’re tightly wound proper under the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very probably the cyclical backside has shaped, so for these with much less danger urge for food, awaiting that will be sensible.
Unibot:
UNIBOT/USD
Day by day:
Value: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)
Market Cap: $63.399mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s take a look at a undertaking I’ve not too long ago purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.
Taking a look at UNIBOT/USD, we will see the pair has solely been buying and selling for just a few months and value has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having shaped an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a variety between help at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has persevered since mid-September and while value tried a breakout just a few days in the past, this failed and we are actually retesting $64 as help; if this stage fails, I might anticipate $51 to be retested as help, the place these on the sidelines may additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut under $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m seeking to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating contemporary highs by means of $226. Into 2024 we go…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
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