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Market Outlook #249 (eleventh December 2023)
Howdy, and welcome to the 249th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I will likely be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Optimism, Alchemix, Altered State Machine and Raini.
As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we will see that final week closed at contemporary yearly highs, via $42k resistance on rising quantity. Value closed out the week simply shy of $44k and early buying and selling this week has seen value dump again under $42k however maintain above $39.7k as help, pushing up from that space again in the direction of $42k, the place it’s at the moment sat. this, there may be little or no to counsel any slowdown, notably after final week’s shut via that confluence of resistance. While we proceed to carry above $39.7k this week, I feel we see this consolidation round $42k result in additional enlargement subsequent week into the 61.8% retracement degree and prior resistance at $48k, the place it’s possible we begin to kind a neighborhood high. If, nevertheless, this sell-off continues later this week and we shut the week again under $39.7k, it’s possible the native high has shaped right here and we will search for additional draw back subsequent week into $36k to retest all that prior resistance as help; under that degree, we filter all of the untapped lows into $33k. That’s the roadmap from each views going into 2024.
Turning to the each day, we will see that value offered off sharply yesterday in one thing of a mini liquidation cascade, taking it from up close to $44k down into $40k, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating proper under that $42k degree. At current, $42k is each day resistance, so reclaiming that over the following day or two would counsel an additional restoration of that cascade and certain a march to contemporary highs from there; if, nevertheless, $42k continues to behave as resistance this week, we might have additional to fall but earlier than discovering a backside, with $39.6k but untested – a second leg decrease into that degree adopted by a $42k reclaim can be a pleasant backside formation to search for longs. As talked about above, till we shut the upper timeframes under $39.6k, I don’t assume this uptrend is finished fairly but. And above $45k there may be solely air into $48k.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see that value closed firmly via resistance at $2170 final week, pushing as excessive as $2400 earlier than closing at $2350 on good quantity. We had been inches shy of that $2425 degree however value has rejected that resistance early this week, clearing out the prior weekly low into prior resistance turned help at $2170 and bouncing off it. If we will now maintain above that degree, that appears very very like just a little flush earlier than enlargement past the 38.2% fib and reclaimed resistance at $2426, with $2650 the following degree of curiosity above that. If we shut the weekly again under $2170, I might count on $1850 to be retested earlier than a backside is discovered, the place there may be loads of confluence. Turning to the each day, we will see how the pair depraved proper into that prior resistance cluster earlier than bouncing onerous yesterday, so holding above $2137 over the following day or two is paramount for this construction to stay legitimate as resistance turned help; begin closing again inside these resistances and the image seems to be much less fairly, with a load of untapped lows seen earlier than that $1850 degree comes into view, the place the 200dMA can also be sat…
Trying now at ETH/BTC, final week retested 0.051 as help and held as soon as once more, bouncing off that to shut at 0.0537, however remaining firmly capped by 0.0551 as resistance. As talked about final week, the image may be very clear right here: under 0.051 we take out 0.04877 earlier than discovering a backside; and above 0.0551 and the 200wMA we development in the direction of trendline resistance. No have to make it any extra sophisticated than that. An extended-term reversal solely turns into excessive likelihood as soon as we flip that multi-year trendline into help, in my view.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we will see on the weekly that value bounced off that 200wMA final week and rallied again into help turned resistance at $0.92, closing proper at that confluence of resistance. Early this week, the pair has offered off, holding above the 200wMA and now sat in no man’s land inside the prior weekly vary. Till we get a weekly shut above $0.93, we will’t be sure of additional enlargement / development continuation, however given the construction right here and the response off the 200wMA I’m leaning in the direction of a breakout quickly. If we drop into the each day, we will see that value additionally held above the 200dMA, front-running it as help earlier than reversing. So long as we now kind a higher-low above $0.77, I might count on the following crack at $0.93 to offer means and for the pair to then broaden in the direction of $1.30 within the coming weeks.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see that value rallied off of help final week, wicking in the direction of 1717 satoshis earlier than closing the week at highs round 2100. It is a promising signal for bulls, and if we will now maintain above 2000 I might count on the vary to get crammed in in the direction of the 200wMA and prior help turned resistance at 2450. Dropping into the each day, we will see how value faked out above the 200dMA earlier than retracing into that help cluster and now turning each day construction bullish on the latest bounce. Acceptance above 2100 on the each day right here is vital, as that might make it very possible we break past the 200dMA once more, and normally the second breakout from a bottoming formation will not be a fakeout, so we may count on to see 2450 satoshis adopted by 2950.
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
UNI/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with UNI/USD, we will see on the weekly that value poked above $6.30 final week, pushing in the direction of $7.50 earlier than closing again close to $6.60. We positively have bullish construction right here however UNI stays inside a 580-day vary, having spent a lot of 2023 chopping round above vary help and under $7.50. From right here, I wish to see this space round $6.30 maintain as help and value to shut the weekly via $7.50 later in December; that for me is the start of the following cycle for UNI, given how that degree has capped the pair since September 2022. Above it, I feel we take out the $9.90 excessive and proceed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at $13.87 earlier than discovering any significant resistance. Trying on the each day, on this timeframe it’s key we maintain above $5.65 as reclaimed help; a pleasant wick under $5.84 into that degree adopted by a reclaim of $6.30 later within the week can be a very nice sign for additional upside, in my opinion.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we will see that value is now consolidating above multi-year help at 14k satoshis after deviating under it. While this degree continues to carry as reclaimed help, I feel it seems to be very very like the underside has shaped right here and we will count on a transfer via 17.5k satoshis to come back sooner reasonably than later; above that, weekly construction turns bullish and I might expect outperformance for UNI all the way in which again in the direction of that 26.7k satoshis space. Dropping into the each day we will see how the 200dMA continues to cap the rallies lately, so a transfer via 17.5k would additionally flip that into help, offering confluence for additional upside.
Optimism:
OP/USD
Every day:
OP/BTC
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: As Optimism has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.
OP/USD, we will see that value may be very a lot in an uptrend, having marked out a backside in June and a macro higher-low in October, then breaking via trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, flipping the 200dMA as help and persevering with to tear greater. Final week noticed the pair push via the $2 space as resistance into reclaimed resistance proper round $2.40, under which it at the moment sits. That is arguably crucial resistance on the chart at current, with it being each the 61.8% fib retracement of the bear market and the double high from 2022. Settle for above this degree as reclaimed help and I feel we get a parabolic transfer in the direction of all-time highs from there, with a excessive likelihood that this second bull cycle takes OP into value discovery past $3.30 given the market circumstances.
Alchemix:
ALCX/USD
Every day:
ALCX/BTC
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: As each pairs look similar right here for ALCX, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair.
ALCX/USD, we will see that value had shaped a long-term backside at $16.42, earlier than breaching it to kind a double backside at $13.46 in 2023. Subsequently, in August 2023, we deviated under that double backside, shaped a contemporary all-time low at $10.27 after which consolidated for just a few months between that low and prior help turned resistance, additionally discovering resistance on the 200dMA, above which the pair had not discovered help (past a quick fakeout) for a number of years. Value has since emerged from this vary, reclaiming each $13.46 and $16.42 as help, turning each day construction bullish. Concurrently, now we have turned the 200dMA into help, above which a higher-low has shaped. Value rallied from that low into $26.44 final week earlier than rejecting and now retracing again into prior resistance at $18.70. So long as the pair can proceed to carry above $16.42 right here, I might count on to see continuation greater, as that is very a lot a classical cyclical backside at current and any transfer above $26 will possible be the start of the following bull cycle for ALCX. For targets on spot luggage, $73 can be the primary space of curiosity after the hole fill, adopted by $178 after which $478 as main resistance.
Altered State Machine:
ASTO/USD
Every day:
ASTO/BTC
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Once more, as ASTO has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
ASTO/USD, we will see that value has concluded its first bear cycle, dropping 97% of its worth from the all-time highs at $0.40. Value backside in October at $0.014 earlier than starting a pointy rally since, reclaiming a number of ranges of help and shutting firmly above the 200dMA, which acted as help in November. Value is now sandwiched between help turned resistance at $0.052 and reclaimed help at $0.037, sitting marginally above the 360dMA at current. So long as the $0.037 space holds as help, I feel the construction right here is okay regardless of the divergence in momentum; shut under that and we possible retraced again in the direction of $0.029 to search out help once more, with $0.024 because the golden alternative for a spot entry if that comes. If this construction does maintain and value merely consolidates inside this vary, I might look to purchase spot on acceptance above $0.052, as there may be principally no resistance above that for an additional 100% rally, and no resistance past $0.13 all the way in which into $0.25. I feel when this one rips, it’ll actually rip, with contemporary highs past $0.40 possible in 2024.
RAINI:
RAINI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
RAINI/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with RAINI/USD, we will see that value closed final week at contemporary yearly highs for 2023, marginally via resistance at $0.05. We have now since continued to push greater early this week with $0.05 appearing as help. If that degree can proceed to behave as help this week, there isn’t any actual resistance on the weekly timeframe again into the 38.2% fib of the bear market and reclaimed resistance at $0.08-$0.088. That might be the place I might count on a neighborhood high to start to kind, from which we might get the primary main correction for Raini of this new cycle. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $0.05 this week after which shut again under it, it’s possible the native high is in right here and I might search for a higher-low to kind above $0.035 earlier than continuation into that vary above. In the end, that is one I’m seeking to maintain for a lot of extra months but, with expectations of contemporary all-time highs past $0.20 in 2024, notably given the Beam narrative.
Turning to RAINI/BTC, we will see that value is at the moment sat proper round that 38.2% fib however there isn’t an historic degree right here for confluence. I might count on 156 satoshis to be retested as resistance if we will maintain above 121 right here. Past that degree, contemporary yearly highs are on the way in which via 183, with 230 satoshis the extent to look at for past that. Once more, for those who’re in a spot place like me, I’m now sitting on my arms till we hit 280 satoshis as main resistance, promoting a partial after which letting the remaining trip for contemporary all-time highs.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
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