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Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)
Whats up, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I shall be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I may even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.
That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have an important Christmas and a Comfortable New Yr and I’ll see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $40,971
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we are able to see that worth spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to think about is the opportunity of inside week failure, which might type if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. On condition that we offered off from final week’s open into the shut again beneath $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in direction of the chance of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we might anticipate final week’s excessive to get taken out out and worth to doubtless proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nonetheless, worth closes the week beneath $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I might anticipate a deeper pullback from there in direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.
Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see that day by day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut beneath the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nonetheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not significantly satisfied by it as of but. If we have been to now shut the day by day by way of $40k, that appears to be like way more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the key degree beneath that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nevertheless, if we are able to proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I might search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do assume we proceed to push greater into $48k…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that worth retraced all the positive aspects of the prior weekly growth final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed assist at $2172. Value depraved beneath the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as assist, with the pair closing again above $2172. Truthfully, that is very a lot giving combined indicators: we now have erasure of the earlier week’s positive aspects following growth past yearly highs, however we now have a sweep of the weekly low into main assist too. Principally, chop continues. What I’m right here is the place we are able to proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I feel we now have the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nonetheless, we shut the week beneath $2137, I feel we’re more likely to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Trying on the day by day, we are able to see how day by day construction appears to be like set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut beneath $2137, and if that’s confirmed we are able to anticipate $2036 to be examined later this week, however with way more assist down round $1850. Nevertheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I feel shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in direction of yearly highs.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that worth continues to cut round between assist at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There may be little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both facet of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.
Casper Community:
CSPR/USD
Each day:
CSPR/BTC
Each day:
Value: $0.038 (92 satoshis)
Ideas: On condition that each pairs look just about similar right here for CSPR, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at CSPR/USD, we are able to see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and beneath $0.055, apart from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this 12 months. We have now bullish construction right here on the day by day however have offered off from prior assist up close to the high quality, with worth now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as assist. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed assist at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I might anticipate to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If it is a venture you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I might take into account this pretty much as good an entry as any on condition that your invalidation right here might be as tight at $0.031; closing beneath that might invalidate all of this current construction and we’d doubtless return in direction of the underside of the vary from there. Trying forward, the disbelief section is clear – shut above $0.073 and I feel this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.
TriasLab:
TRIAS/USD
Each day:
TRIAS/BTC
Each day:
Value: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, given how related these pairs look right here, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair, because the construction can also be slightly cleaner.
Taking a look at TRIAS/USD, we are able to see that worth was in an extended interval of growth off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation beneath $4.15, faking out above that degree as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA performing as assist and worth then reclaiming the 200dMA as assist in October. Since, the pair has rallied in direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that degree and most just lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking recent yearly highs by way of $5. Given this market construction, I might completely not be fading this, as a substitute contemplating this doubtless the start of the following main leg greater for TRIAS. If we are able to now maintain above $4.15, I might anticipate $6.40 to present manner and worth to make its manner in direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the following native high varieties.
Morpheus Community:
MNW/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
MNW/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Value: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)
Ideas: If we start by MNW/USD on the weekly, we are able to see that worth continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected beneath the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior assist ~$1.46. We’re at the moment discovering assist above $0.94, as has been the case since late final 12 months, however to be trustworthy this isn’t a very enticing long-term chart at current. We have now worth discovering assist above the 200wMA in Nov final 12 months, then rallying to recent yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the positive aspects again into the 200wMA after which rallying way more weakly off that very same assist into the trendline. If that $0.94 assist goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at the moment your most necessary degree. Till it will get a weekly shut by way of that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be trustworthy – significantly better alternatives out there.
Taking a look at MNW/BTC, we are able to see that the pair may be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with recent lows on the latest break and shut beneath 3264 satoshis. Value is now sat in no man’s land, with main assist beneath close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 degree. There may be additionally no signal simply but of development exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how just lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), will probably be some time but earlier than this one totally bottoms out; while most of its worth capitulation seems to have occurred, we might must see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Each day:
CELL/BTC
Each day:
Value: $0.19 (475 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, very like a few different tokens on this put up, CELL’s pairs look very related right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can also be what I’m basing my long-term place on.
So, CELL/USD, we are able to see that worth has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed assist above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we now have been consolidating above all-time lows and beneath $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not totally allotted I might be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation could be recent all-time lows, the place I might minimize and look ahead to a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market situations I feel we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…
Altcoin Market Cap:
ALT/USD
Weekly:
ALT/BTC
Weekly:
Market Cap: $441.2bn
Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we are able to see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, just lately rallying again by way of the 200wMA, consolidating above it as assist after which pushing by way of multi-year resistance at $413bn. We have now pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating throughout the prior weekly vary. I might anticipate to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there may be nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we are able to now maintain above that $400bn space, I might anticipate the following squeeze to open up a wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t any resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior assist close to $590bn – over 25% greater from right here. That’s the place I might anticipate extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is turning into hope.
Taking a look at ALT/BTC, we are able to see that regardless of some positive aspects in Greenback values of alts – and large positive aspects on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we now have largely been trending decrease in opposition to BTC for over a 12 months. Most just lately, alts depraved beneath assist at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with development exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we are able to reclaim 11.4mn as assist right here, I feel that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary assist up close to 13.3mn BTC.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate one among 2023!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
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